3 months ago, in the midst of full lock down, like many others I found myself reading blogs and articles from my peers predicting the future of the world post lock down.
Some writers predicted an instant bounce back and some portrayed a lengthy recovery. One thing that remained consistent amongst all of these articles was that the authors had no more experience than the rest of us of the situation we found ourselves in.
I therefore took it upon myself to try and predict what the marketing world would look like in 3 months.
So here are the 3 key areas I was looking at and my predictions:
TRAVEL
Domestic airlines – over the years these have become cheaper and more convenient to use, with regular domestic flights to regional airports proving a convenient alternative to long train journeys. It is unlikely the rising cost or airport environment will appeal to anyone. That is assuming there are any domestic airlines left.
Road – it is likely that most people will be moving towards car journeys which will make roads even more congested. Add to this that the majority of people who usually holiday abroad will be holidaying in the UK and that everyone will be wanting a holiday and I think the road networks will be seriously stretched.
Companies benefiting from this will be breakdown insurance, handheld and in-car entertainment consoles, car accessories such as roof boxes, camping and outdoor pursuits equipment and we may even see a mini resurgence in Automotive sales or rentals.
Marks out of 10 : 8
Forecast equivalent – Paul the Octopus
Not a bad start I think. A few marks off for mentioning car sales and maybe the roads aren’t quite as busy as I expected because of the continued trend for remote working but not bad.
SPORT
After 5 months or so, cooped up without team sports to watch or take part in, and only 1 hour worth of exercise there will be a lot of people needing their competitive fix.
It is unlikely that normal league football will resume immediately and it is likely that amateur football leagues will also remain postponed. We may however see versions of our best loved sports start to emerge.
The majority of professional sports could find a variation of their games that enable well known sports stars to compete on camera but without live fans at the venues. The problem arises with travel to and from the venue and quarantine times prior to the event.
Existing sports that will have started (without fans) will be: Golf, Boxing, International Cricket
Growing spectator sports: Footgolf, esports, lesser known Foreign Football Leagues
Participation sports (with some new rule variations): Golf, Cycling, Tennis, Horse Racing
Marks out of 10 : 6
Forecast equivalent – Michael Fish
Failure to predict that no matter what, the huge amounts of money in Football would find a way to continue the season hits me hard here. Also haven’t quite seen huge crowds at footgolf yet!
FOOD AND DRINK
With a lot of current homeworkers remaining at home, general lunchtime food items will still be high demand but with less government wage and business support, unemployment will grow so the brands people buy may change. Instant noodles, pasta, wraps, bread, sandwich fillers etc.
Home cooking will have seen sustained growth with the summer months bringing outdoor cooking to the forefront of daily activities as many see this as a way of maintaining social distancing. Disposable BBQs, marinades, sausages, burgers, skewers.
Some Takeaways will have re-opened yet restaurant and pub life will remain blocked by the government unless there is sufficient outdoor space and even then that will only be allowed for pubs.
Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber Eats will be in high demand.
Direct to Consumer food deliveries such as Hello Fresh and Gousto may level out whereas less well known and local deliveries may see growth.
Marks out of 10 : 6
Forecast equivalent – Mystic Meg
The obvious predictions I got right but trying to be specific about pubs and restaurants let me down. I should maybe stick to generalisations.
The Future
Undeterred by my few failures, I am going to brush myself off and go again. Like any true marketer I am going to learn from my mistakes and re-brand them as “learnings”.
My next post will contain my new predictions along with a few about how advertisers should capitalise on changing consumer behaviour during these times.